Publications

A post-election analysis of the first round of Colombian elections, held nationwide on 30 May 2010.

With the FARC weakened, Colombia's next president will face a more factionalized internal insurgency, requiring a different strategic approach.

This article examines the recent political violence in Nicaragua.

Nicaragua is not Honduras, but a power-hungry president in a poor Central American nation makes some nervous.

The second of two big-time busts of Colombian drug kingpins abroad during the week of 12 April. Nestor Caro Chapparo was wanted by the US State Department for up to USD 5 million.

He was caught leaving his apartment building, located one block from Copacabana beach.

The US-Brazil Defense Cooperation Agreement has been in the news a lot recently. This commentary analyzes how it may be indicative of an overall trend in US policy towards the region.

The article also looks at US military operations in Latin America, including a former FOL at Ecuador, and a number of antinarcotics bases in Panama that may use US intelligence.

An abridged version of this post appears on the AQ blog, April 13. I've included this version to include remarks made by Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense of the Western Hemisphere Frank Mora at an event at the Brookings Institute, Washington DC, February 25.

As Ecuador tries to rid itself of blacklisted status, the country remains at risk for drug trafficking and fraud.

The frequent changes in strategy and attempts at structural reform of the banking sector highlight the importance the Ecuadorian government lends to getting off the blacklist. As long as Ecuador remains on the blacklist, it remains vulnerable to downgraded credit ratings and skepticism from international creditors. This may lead to a halt of lines of credit from international sources, a much-needed source of income Ecuador can use in public security investment to battle rising levels of delinquency and street crime.

Diplomatic relations between Colombia and Venezuela have been at the front lines since a Spanish judge accused Venezuela of assisting FARC rebels on March 1, two years to the day after a raid by Colombian soldiers in Ecuador prompted one of the worst regional diplomatic disputes in recent memory.

The claims aggravate a sensitive issue between Colombia and Venezuela. For the past eight years, Alvaro Uribe has made eliminating the FARC the key piece of his strategy to improve security in Colombia. Last week, he pledged to dedicate his remaining months in office towards this end. The accusation that a neighboring state is helping the very group Colombia is trying to destroy, while Colombia is helping the very ally (Washington) the Bolivarian Revolution is trying to topple, has a lot to do with the mutual animosity.

Although the inauguration of Porfirio Lobo definitively answers the question of who will be president of Honduras in 2010 and closes some lingering chapters from the crisis, a significant amount of work lays ahead for his administration. The immediate future of Hondurans, a nation already reeling from problems in security, education, money, and job creation, may depend on his ability to transform the political power struggle of the last seven months into postive results.

A new advertising campaign from Quilmes, a leading Argentine beer brand whose name is derived from the town where the first brewery was established during the 19th century, asks what would have happened had the town of Quilmes not been so lucky. The campaign, created by Y&R Argentina which features, TV, radio, digital, OOH, print, and event/street marketing, launched on 16 November 2009 by asking Argentines what would happen if their beloved beverage had been first brewed in other towns in Argentina.

Regional integration blocs (regardless of stated purpose) - UNASUR, PARLACEN, ALBA, OAS, CAN, etc. - have goals and expectations that often exceed what is practical or feasible for all partners involved.

This commentary analyzes the merits of regional blocs in Latin America and offers a suggestion for more realistic goals for improved diplomatic relationships.

The reach of Mexican drug trafficking organizations in South America reveals not only the vast extent of their power, but also the need for focused international cooperation and intelligence sharing.